In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
New data from the Office for National Statistics reveals that almost 90% of British households saw their cost of living rise last month as growing fuel, food and borrowing costs continue to compound.
The ONS also said a quarter of those surveyed said they were struggling to meet those costs. The figures represent November to March and do not include April’s rise in energy prices or national insurance contributions.
The figures come amid a backdrop of extenuating factors, including the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a 30-year high in inflation, that have all seen prices hike in recent weeks and months.
Elsewhere in the UK, the impact of inflation and the war in Ukraine continued to be felt. Business activity grew at the slowest rate in three months in April, as orders in the services sector slumped. Retail sales fell by a worse-than-expected 1.4% in March from the month previous, also according to the ONS. Market research firm GfK said consumer confidence slumped in April, approaching its lowest level since the data series began 50 years ago.
Stock markets in China and Europe have fallen as fears that continuing Covid restrictions in China could hit supply chains and the wider global economy.
Authorities in Beijing have enforced mass testing in one area of the city following a small outbreak of cases. However, there are also concerns the capital could follow Shanghai by enforcing a lockdown to contain the spread.
London's leading FTSE 100 share index tumbled, led by commodities firms such as oil producers and miners. The FTSE dropped by 2.2% and stock markets in Germany and France also fell following a decline of more than 5% on China's Shanghai Composite Index earlier. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed 3.7% lower while Japan's Nikkei index fell by nearly 2%.
However, China’s economy grew at a stronger-than-expected 4.8% pace in the year’s first quarter from a year ago, up from 4.0% in last year’s fourth quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded 1.3% in the first three months of the year, slowing from the previous quarter’s 1.6% increase.
In the US, initial data for the S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, suggested that growth in business activity slowed in April but remained strong. The widely watched economic indicator came in at 55.1 compared with 57.7 in March.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
Economic growth in the United Kingdom slowed abruptly to 0.1% in February, official figures from the Office for National Statistics show.
After a 0.8% monthly rise in January, the stall in the country’s economic recovery has been attributed to a decline in production and construction output.
The figures are a slight decline on economists estimates, who predicted growth would decline to 0.3% when polled by Reuters.
However, the UK economy is still 1.5% larger than in February 2020, just before the financial shockwave of lockdowns induced by the coronavirus pandemic took effect.
Driven by a sharp decline in production of cars and computer goods, which is exacerbated by the continuing global semiconductor shortage, the downturn was offset by growth in the services sector - including travel and tourism. Activity in the health sector dropped by 3.8% due to a decrease in Test & Trace and the NHS vaccination programme.
In Europe, investor morale in the eurozone fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in April, according to a monthly survey conducted by German market research group Sentix.
Economic data provided more evidence of a gathering slowdown in Germany. German factory orders fell sharply in February, mainly by a decline in foreign orders. It was the first drop in orders after three consecutive months of gains.
In the United States, new jobless figures appear to suggest the economy is proving resilient in the face of growing inflation and the war in Ukraine. Weekly jobless claims fell much more than expected to 166,000 - the lowest number since 1968. Continuing claims rose unexpectedly, however.
In China, Shanghai has been under a citywide, two-stage lockdown that began on March 28 in an effort to stop the virus’s spread. With 23 Chinese cities currently under total or partial lockdown, Nomura has estimated that 193 million people are affected in areas that account for 13.5% of China’s economy.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
Christian Sewing, the Chief Executive Officer of Deutsche Bank, has warned that a recession in Germany is highly likely if the country’s supplies of Russian gas should be cut off.
Speaking to a press briefing, Mr Sewing added his name to a growing list of German executives and politicians to offer stark warnings. He claimed there would be “a further deterioration of the situation if there’s a stop to imports or deliveries of Russian oil and natural gas.”
Germany imports 55% of its gas supply from Russia, through the Nord Stream gas pipeline. It has publicly said it intends to reduce its reliance on Russian gas but predicts it will not be able to achieve this until mid-2024.
The country is already battling a surge in inflation but Mr Sewing predicts the figure could climb into double digits should an import embargo on Russian gas be enacted. It comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered that foreign buyers must pay for energy supplies in rubles.
The United Kingdom is battling its own crisis as energy prices for consumers soared on 1st April last week - with an unprecedented £700 per year price hike for a household on average usage.
Elsewhere in Europe, initial estimates showed that the eurozone’s annual inflation rate soared to a record 7.5% in March, compared with 5.9% in February. The increase was driven mainly by the upsurge in energy prices. However, the rate of unemployment dropped to a record low of 6.8% in February as the economy continued to recover from the lifting of coronavirus lockdowns.
In the United States, stock prices fluctuated over the week in an apparent response to the evolving situation in the war in Ukraine. The week started off on a strong note, which traders attributed to positive negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The S&P 500’s four-day winning streak was broken on Wednesday after a Russian official said that talks with Ukraine yielded no breakthroughs and that Russia was regrouping forces in a push to complete the takeover of the eastern Donbas region.
Finally, in China, the country’s PMIs for manufacturing and services fell into contraction in March as outbreaks of the omicron variant of Covid-19 across the country led to lockdowns and disrupted industrial production. Many economists have reduced their economic growth forecasts for China due to the virus’s resurgence and the government’s zero-tolerance approach to outbreaks.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
The European Union has signed a new deal with the United States that will see the EU receive an extra 15 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas by the end of the year, as it aims to reduce its reliance on Russian energy.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU has been quick to reduce its ties with the country. Alongside a raft of sanctions on Russian businesses and individuals, the alliance has also been looking at ways it can reduce its dealings with Russia.
The extra 15 billion cubic metres is in addition to the 22 billion the EU already receives from the US, and equates to about 10% of the total supply received from Russia.
Approximately 40% of the EU’s total gas needs are supplied by Russia. The combined 37 billion cubic metres from the US will equate to around 24% of this total.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled his Spring Budget last week amid the growing cost of living crisis. It featured modest cuts in fuel duty tax and national insurance contributions alongside Mr Sunak pre-announcing a reduction in the basic income tax rate in 2024.
In the United States, new data showed that some aspects of the economy remained resilient in the face of the turbulence experienced as a result of the Russian invasion. Durable goods orders fell 2.2% in February, the first decline in five months and much more than the expected fall of around 0.5%, but IHS Markit’s gauge of manufacturing activity rose much more than expected in March and hit its highest level since September 2020 - whilst its services gauge indicated the most activity since July 2021. Weekly jobless claims fell much more than expected and hit levels last seen in September 1969.
Amid growing pressure on Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to act to cushion the impact of rising fuel and commodity prices on households and firms, the Japanese government is set to announce an additional package of measures to boost the economy. Tokyo’s core consumer price index, a leading indicator of the national average, rose 0.8% in March from a year earlier.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
Businesses in the UK have pleaded with Chancellor Rishi Sunak to help with the growing cost of living crisis by scrapping the planned national insurance rise due to come into effect in April.
Ahead of Mr Sunak’s Spring Statement to the House of Commons on Wednesday, economists have warned that the increase could wipe £24bn in economic growth over the next decade.
A Randstad survey of 730 businesses employing about 9,000 people found that nine out of ten employers want the government to scrap its 1.25 percentage point rise in national insurance, which is planned for next month.
The calls come amid a backdrop of increasing economic uncertainty, exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine - with estimates forecasting that inflation will reach 8% later in the Spring.
In other news, the Bank of England has tried to stem the rise in costs by raising interest rates by a further 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%. It marks the third time in four months that the Bank has raised the rate and its highest since March 2020 - just as the first national coronavirus lockdown began.
In the United States, new data showed that February retail sales were disappointing. However, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to a 52-year low - showing continued strength in the labour market. Meanwhile, mortgage rates in the country soared as they surpassed 4% for the first time in almost three years.
The Moscow stock exchange has partially reopened after a nearly month-long suspension following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As it stands, only bonds issued by the Russian government can be traded but officials hoped that trading in stocks could resume soon.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
Government ministers are expected to scrap all remaining international travel rules currently in place in England.
Under current law, all passengers arriving in England are required to complete a passenger locator form before they reach the country.
Those who aren’t fully vaccinated are also required to take a Covid test before departure and pay for a full PCR test upon arrival.
Members of the travel industry have long campaigned for a relaxation of the rules, as the sector aims to bounce back from the devastating impact of the pandemic. The restrictions are set to end this coming Friday but it is not yet known if the United Kingdom’s devolved nations will follow suit.
Elsewhere, petrol prices are expected to drop again later in the month as global oil prices start to fall. After hitting record highs last week, surging past 160p per litre in the UK, prices are expected to stabilise in line with the global market as fears that the European Union would follow the US and Canada in banning Russian oil have eased.
In the United States, stocks moved lower over another week of extreme volatility provoked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At its intraday low for the week last Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite fell to a level that was nearly 22% below its recent peak - more than the 20% threshold that technically defines a bear market. At its low point, the S&P 500 Index was roughly 14% off its high. Consumer staples stocks underperformed as Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and other food and consumer manufacturers announced that they were suspending business in Russia.
Assets in Poland have been pressured by the country’s proximity to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the National Bank of Poland deciding to raise its reference rate by 75 basis points, from 2.75% to 3.50%. Poland shares its southeastern border with western Ukraine and it has received more than 1.4 million Ukrainian refugees, according to data from the United Nations, in what has become the worst humanitarian crisis in Europe since World War II.
Japan’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 was downgraded to an annualised 4.6%, from 5.4% on a smaller rise in private demand. Nevertheless, it marked a return to growth for the economy following a contraction in the previous three-month period.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
Crude oil prices have soared to a 14-year high in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as economic sanctions on the country begin to hit the wider global economy.
Prices rose to $139 a barrel early on Monday on reports that the United States may introduce a blanket ban on buying Russian energy as it looked to other countries to increase supply.
Russia is the world’s second biggest producer of crude oil after Saudi Arabia and supplies almost one-third of Europe’s requirements.
In turn, petrol prices have risen to an average of 155 pence per litre in the UK - as the country faces an already-prevalent cost of living crisis now being exacerbated by the conflict.
Elsewhere surrounding the conflict, dozens of companies have pulled out of Russia entirely - with giants Visa and Mastercard halting all sales, Apple and Google have restricted use of their mobile payment services and Paypal have also withdrawn from the country. Similarly, several well-known brands have halted their operations including Microsoft, Zara, Netflix and Jaguar Land Rover.
Amid the geopolitical and economic uncertainty stemming from the conflict in Ukraine and surging global oil prices, Japan’s stock markets registered losses for the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling 1.85% and the broader TOPIX Index down 1.67%.
The Russian stock market was closed during the week after the United States, Canada, and various European nations decided to cut off several Russian banks from SWIFT, an international banking and messaging network. In addition, sanctions were issued on Russia’s Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, and the National Wealth Fund - prohibiting transactions with these institutions and effectively “freezing” reserves in their respective jurisdictions.
In response to a crash in the ruble versus the US dollar last Monday, the central bank boosted short-term interest rates from 9.5% to 20%, imposed a temporary ban on nonresident investors holding Russian financial assets, and took other actions in an attempt to soften the impact on Russia’s financial system.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
Following Russia’s large-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, the country’s rouble has crashed to an all-time low in the wake of unprecedented international sanctions on Russian business and trade - aimed at crippling the country’s economy.
After sending forces into Ukraine on Thursday, Russian president Vladimir Putin continues his offensive in the face of a 41.5% plunge on the rouble’s value as markets opened on Monday morning.
The European Union, the United States & the United Kingdom have all introduced swathes of sanctions against Russia and President Putin personally. Alongside bans on Russian aircraft entering EU, UK and Canadian airspace and personal sanctions on some of Putin’s closest allies, a collective agreement was made to restrict the country’s access to the Swift international payment system - the most significant measure introduced so far that sees some banks cut off internationally.
Combined with asset freezes on much of the Central Bank of Russia’s foreign currency reserves, analysts at Rabobank in Singapore predict the rouble could collapse entirely as the country becomes further isolated from international markets.
Despite widespread condemnation for his actions, the Kremlin shows no sign of relenting. The United Nations estimates that 368,000 Ukranians have fled the country as Russian forces continue to advance through the country. Delegations from both Ukraine and Russia have arrived at the Ukraine-Belarus border to begin initial peace talks.
The knock-on effect of the invasion and subsequent sanctions is already being felt elsewhere - with UK petrol prices tipping beyond 150p per litre for the first time.
On Wall Street, Dow futures returned 490 points, or 1.4% lower, whilst oil prices surged. Delta Airlines has suspended a booking agreement with Russia’s flag carrier, Aeroflot.
Meanwhile, the Japanese government has also introduced sanctions of its own - beginning with visa suspensions and broadening in line with EU measures, now including export controls on semiconductors and other high-tech products alongside asset freezes.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
Markets across Europe have suffered falls at the start of the new week as the growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to spook investors.
The FTSE 100 opened 1.3% lower this morning whilst Germany’s DAX index dropped 2.75%, France’s CAC index by 2.7% and Italy’s FTSE MIB by 3.65%.
Travel stocks were hardest hit with budget airlines Wizz Air and easyJet down 8.8% and 3.9% respectively. It comes as some operators, such as KLM, suspend flights to and from Ukraine amidst the growing uncertainty.
More than a dozen countries have urged their citizens to leave Ukraine as fears grow of an imminent Russian invasion. Fuelled by the growing number of Russian military forces on Ukraine’s border, world leaders are calling for an open discussion to find a resolution to the stand off.
In the United States, inflation has hit its highest level in 40 years. The rise of 7.5% was more than forecasted estimates and the biggest annual gain since February 1982. Core prices, which exclude food and energy purchases, rose 6.0%, the most since August 1982.
Inflation worries were reflected in the University of Michigan’s preliminary gauge of consumer sentiment in February, on Friday morning. At 61.7, the index reading came in well below expectations of roughly 67 and hit its lowest level since October 2011. The survey’s chief researcher termed the drop “stunning” and pointed out that “nearly half of all consumers are expecting declines in their inflation-adjusted incomes during the year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the Japanese government has extended its quasi-state of emergency in Tokyo and 12 other prefectures by three weeks, owing to continued coronavirus infections. While Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that the increase in new cases has been slowing, health experts say the latest wave has yet to peak. Amid some criticism that the government has been slow to roll out its COVID-19 booster program, Kishida has set a target of administering one million booster shots a day by the end of February.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
The Bank of England has increased its key interest rate for a second consecutive month, in a bid to ease the burden of the sharp rise in inflation.
To help stem the rising levels of inflation, which the Bank predicts could peak at 7.25% by April, it has increased the rate by a quarter point from 0.25% to 0.5%. It is the first time the Bank has hiked rates in two successive meetings since 2004.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Unit was split 5-4 on the size of the increase of the rate, with four pushing for a bigger, 0.5% rise instead.
In a stark warning, the Bank has also slashed its growth forecast and predicted that families are set to suffer the biggest fall in living standards since comparable records began three decades ago.
In the United States, confusion has arisen over the most recent jobs data. Last Wednesday’s report by private payroll firm ADP suggested that its tally of private sector employment fell by 301,000 in January - in what would be the steepest decline since the start of the pandemic. However, data from the Labor Department on Friday reported a surprising increase of 467,000 jobs, roughly three times initial expectations.
The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January - its lowest level since February 2020 - from 50.9 in December, suggesting that smaller, private firms in China struggled last month. China’s official manufacturing PMI surveys mostly big and state-owned firms, while the private Caixin survey focuses on smaller, export-focused companies.
More evidence of falling sales reflected continued pressure on China’s cash-strapped property sector, which has been suffering a liquidity crisis since last year. Sales for the 100 biggest companies in the property industry slumped 39.6% in January from a year ago compared with December’s 35.2% decrease, according to preliminary data by China Real Estate Information Corp.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
The US economy has grown at its fastest pace in almost 40 years as it launched a stern fightback from pandemic lockdowns.
Official figures from the Commerce Department revealed the economy grew by 5.7% - the highest growth since 1984.
However, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and the Government prepares to scale back stimulus packages, analysts expect growth to slow throughout this year.
The World Bank expects the economy to grow by 3.7% in 2022, in line with other forecasts.
Meanwhile, the labour market recovered 19 million of the 22 million jobs lost in 2020 due to the enforced shutdowns.
In Europe, Denmark said it would remove almost all coronavirus restrictions on February 1st, except for testing travelers from abroad. Denmark follows the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands in scrapping measures aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19, even though infections remain at or near record highs across the continent. Sweden, Norway, and Finland announced that they were likely to ease their restrictions in the coming days and weeks.
The debt crisis in China’s property sector has drawn attention to the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), a tool used by local governments to borrow money without it appearing on their balance sheets. According to several reports, LGFVs have eclipsed private developers as the leading buyers of land parcels in China. The increase in off-balance sheet debt amid the pandemic is a key concern for policymakers as they try to manage growing risks to the economy. China’s LGFV debt totals roughly CNY 53 trillion, or roughly one-half of gross domestic product, Goldman Sachs estimates.
In our Market Monday insights, Prosperity Investment Management examines the latest developments across the globe's biggest financial markets - providing you with all the latest information you need to know.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has suggested that the UK’s current inflation pressures may prove longer-lasting than initially thought.
Reflecting on the revelation that the country’s inflation rate has reached its highest level since 1992, Bailey told the Treasury Committee that surging energy costs are one of the leading causes and that pressures are beginning to feed into wage demands.
Last week, Office for National Statistics figures showed consumer price inflation rose to 5.4% in December from 5.1% in November, the highest since March 1992 and far above the BoE's 2% target.
When quizzed on what can be done to help citizens deal with the rising cost of living, Bailey said "we will do everything we can do, I can assure you of that."
Similar worries weighed heavily in the US too as the S&P 500 suffered its worst decline in more than 14 months. The Nasdaq Composite index slumped roughly 7.5% in its biggest weekly drop since the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile, weakness in semiconductor shares weighed on technology stocks whilst weakness in vehicle manufacturers and home improvement retailers dragged down the consumer discretionary sector.
Major Latin American markets were mixed, as pressures from rising US Treasury yields were countered by news that China was accelerating some infrastructure projects and reducing certain interest rates to stimulate its economy. Growth in China usually bodes well for demand for commodities produced by Latin American countries.
Brazilian shares, as measured by the Bovespa Index, returned about 1.9%. Chilean shares returned about 3.5% and investors seemed generally satisfied with President-Elect Gabriel Boric’s cabinet appointments announced on Friday.
Mexican stocks, however, returned -4.0%. The market was hurt in part by Mexico’s proximity to the weak U.S. equity market. Sentiment was also hurt by news that Mexico’s economy, which contracted in the third quarter of 2021, appears to have contracted in December as well - raising concerns that the country may already be in a recession.